February 18, 2018 Facebook  twitter  Google+
The Dollar is Sagging as Riskier Assets Drop Following ACA Defeat
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The dollar[i] moved lower and European yields moved higher as risk aversion picked up and stocks sold off. Bund futures in particular are down from earlier highs after a stronger than expected German Ifo reading, which is adding to the arguments of the hawks at the council. Eurozone spreads have held pretty steady, with Spain the notable exception, although taking a longer view, Spain is still outperforming France and Italy, amid a general widening of intra-Eurozone spreads as pressure on the ECB to reign in its expansionary policy is growing. Gilt outperformance meanwhile was underpinned by a rise in Sterling against the Dollar, which helped to reduce inflation concerns and added further pressure on the FTSE 100[i].

Asian stock markets headed south, with Japan leading the way, as exporters were hit by a stronger Yen and investors were cautious amid lingering doubts about the future of Trump's political agenda, after the failure of his health care reform bill.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply Eased in February

Eurozone M3 money supply growth eased to 4.7% year over year in February, against expectations for a slight acceleration in the annual rate, which was revised down to 4.9% year over year in January from 5.0% year over year reported initially. The narrower M1 aggregate was unchanged at a strong 8.4% year over year, but what will worry markets in particular is the fact that the annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations fell back to 2.0% year over year in February from 2.3% year over year in January. Loans to households rose 2.3% year over year in February, a slight rise compared to the 2.2% year over year rate in the previous month, but the renewed deceleration in the rate of growth for company loans will add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB.

German March IFO confidence jumped to 112.3, a much better reading than expected and in fact the highest since July 2011. February was revised up to 111.1 from 111.0 and the breakdown showed that both current conditions indicators and future expectations continues to improve markedly, boosted to a large extend by a very buoyant industrial sector.

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